Science2014-01-07 11:16 PM

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict 量化气候对人类冲突的影响

Abstract
Introduction
Despite the existence of institutions designed to promote peace, interactions between individuals and groups sometimes lead to conflict. Understanding the causes of such conflict is a major project in the social sciences, and researchers in anthropology, economics, geography, history, political science, psychology, and sociology have long debated the extent to which climatic changes are responsible. Recent advances and interest have prompted an explosion of quantitative studies on this question. 介绍 尽管有促进和平的机构存在, 个人和群体之间还是有互相作用存在有时候会导致冲突。 了解这些冲突的原因是社会科学的主要议题, 来自人类学,经济学,地理学,历史,政治科学,哲学以及社会学的研究者们一直在争论气候变化要对什么负责。 最近的进展和兴趣促使了一轮对该问题的定量研究的爆发。
Methods
We carried out a comprehensive synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on climate and human conflict. We examined many types of human conflict, ranging from interpersonal violence and crime to intergroup violence and political instability and further to institutional breakdown and the collapse of civilizations. We focused on quantitative studies that can reliably infer causal associations between climate variables and conflict outcomes. The studies we examined are experiments or “natural experiments”; the latter exploit variations in climate over time that are plausibly independent of other variables that also affect conflict. In many cases, we obtained original data from studies that did not meet this criterion and used a common statistical method to reanalyze these data. In total, we evaluated 60 primary studies that have examined 45 different conflict data sets. We collected findings across time periods spanning 10,000 BCE to the present and across all major world regions. 方法 我们对快速发展的关于气候和人类冲突的理论,从人与人之间的暴力和犯罪到群体间的暴力和政治不稳再到体制崩溃和文明毁灭, 进行了综合。 我们专注于可以可靠地推断气候变量和冲突发生相关的原因的定量研究。 这项研究我们研究的是实验或者自然实验;后者使用了不同时间的气候变量,这些变量是独立于其他的影响人类冲突的变量的。 在很多状况下,我们从和标准并不符合的研究中取得原始数据,但是我们利用一个常用的统计方法来研究这些数据。 总体来说,我们评估了60个主要的研究,这些研究一共测试了45组不同的冲突数据。 我们收集了这些时间跨度从10000BCE到现在地区跨越世界大部分的发现。
Results
Deviations from normal precipitation and mild temperatures systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially. This relationship is apparent across spatial scales ranging from a single building to the globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Our meta-analysis of studies that examine populations in the post-1950 era suggests that the magnitude of climate’s influence on modern conflict is both substantial and highly statistically significant (P < 0.001). Each 1-SD change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall increases the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14% (median estimates). 结果 正常降水量以及微小的气温系统的变化会增加冲突的风险, 这种冲突的增加是非常明显的。 这一关系明显地跨越空间尺度范围, 从单一的建筑到全球;并且跨越时间尺度,从一小时到一千年。 我们荟萃分析研究在考察了1950年代之后的人群之后发现气候影响现代冲突是显著并且具有高度统计学意义的 (P < 0.001)。 每1-SD的气温升高或者更极端的降雨增加4%的人与人之间的暴力冲突频率, 并且增加14%的群体间的冲突(媒体估计)。
Discussion
We conclude that there is more agreement across studies regarding the influence of climate on human conflict than has been recognized previously. Given the large potential changes in precipitation and temperature regimes projected for the coming decades—with locations throughout the inhabited world expected to warm by 2 to 4 SDs by 2050—amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical social impact of anthropogenic climate change in both low- and high-income countries. 讨论 我们的结论是人们对气候影响人类冲突的研究的肯定等到了前所未有多的承认。 我们给出了未来几十年降雨和气温将发生大规模的变化的预测-到2050年全世界范围内预计将变暖2-4SDs-人类冲突的增加率可以说明一个国家经济好坏,人为气候变化都能导致大规模的严重的社会冲突。

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