Nature2013-11-10 2:54 AM

Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing 天然气溶胶对间接胁迫的不确定性起巨大作用

Abstract The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates. 论文摘要 人工气溶胶对云滴的浓度(CCN)及辐射特性起的作用是工业时代气候辐射强迫几大最重要的不确定性根源之一。这种不确定性影响了我们估量气候对温室气体排放敏感度的能力。我们在这里对全球模型进行一项敏感性分析从而来量化云层辐射强迫的不确定性,这种不确定性是由于工业时期气溶胶排放和处理的不确定性造成的。我们的研究结果表明自从大约1750年以来气溶胶强迫的变化中产生于来自火山的二氧化硫,来自海洋的二甲基硫化物,生物挥发性的有机碳,生物体焚烧和海雾等自然排放的不确定性占45%,强迫变化中与人为排放有关的仅占34%。研究结果强调了充分理解早期仅含自然气溶胶的类似前工业环境的重要性,并提议:改良的估量方法和在现今污染条件下对模拟气溶胶的测评不一定会得到胁迫估计不确定性会随之同比例降低的结果。

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