Nature2014-01-02 11:46 PM

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability 由近期变化看气候反常的预期时间

Abstract Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented. 论文摘要 现代气候变化造成的生态和社会混乱是由时间框架所根本决定的,随着时间推移,气候转变已超越了历史相似情况。在此,我们给出了给定位置的预计平均气候在不寻常的温室气体排放情景下变动至一个持续处在历史变化范围之外状态时的新指数。将1860年至2005年作为历史时期,该指数的近地表空气温度全球平均值在排放稳定的情况下为2069( ± 18年S.D. ),在“一切正常”情景下则为2047 ( ±14岁S.D. )。这种空前的气候将在热带地区和低收入国家中最早发生,这凸显了全球生物多样性的脆弱性和政府应对气候变化效应的有限能力。假如对生物多样性和社会有潜在危害的气候可以被避免的话,则我们的研究结果揭示了减少温室气体排放的紧迫性。

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