Nature2014-01-06 2:20 AM

No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns 全球气候变化没有随着地区格局的改变而加剧

Abstract Evidence from Greenland ice cores shows that year-to-year temperature variability was probably higher in some past cold periods, but there is considerable interest in determining whether global warming is increasing climate variability at present. This interest is motivated by an understanding that increased variability and resulting extreme weather conditions may be more difficult for society to adapt to than altered mean conditions. So far, however, in spite of suggestions of increased variability, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether it is occurring. Here we show that although fluctuations in annual temperature have indeed shown substantial geographical variation over the past few decades, the time-evolving standard deviation of globally averaged temperature anomalies has been stable. A feature of the changes has been a tendency for many regions of low variability to experience increases, which might contribute to the perception of increased climate volatility. The normalization of temperature anomalies creates the impression of larger relative overall increases, but our use of absolute values, which we argue is a more appropriate approach, reveals little change. Regionally, greater year-to-year changes recently occurred in much of North America and Europe. Many climate models predict that total variability will ultimately decrease under high greenhouse gas concentrations, possibly associated with reductions in sea-ice cover. Our findings contradict the view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation. 论文摘要 格陵兰冰芯展示的证据表明每年气温变化可能比过去一些寒冷时期更高,我们对此产生了极大兴趣来确定是否全球变暖正使当前气候变化加速。与改变平均条件相比,加速的变化性和导致极端天气条件对全社会来说可能更难适应。我们的这种兴趣也是因对此的理解而被激发。然而到目前为止,尽管有对天气加速变化的建议,但我们对该结果是否会发生仍相当不确定。我们在此表明,虽然年平均气温的波动确实显示出过去几十年大量的地理变异,但随时间发展的全球平均温度异常的标准偏差一直保持稳定。这些变化的特征显示出许多低变性地区将经历气候加速异常的趋势,这可能有助于我们对加速的气候波动的感知。温度异常的正态化造成了相对较高的整体增长,但我们使用的绝对值(我们认为是更合理的方法)则揭示了实际上变动很小。从地区来看,在很多北美和欧洲地区每年发生更大的变化。许多气候模型预测,在温室气体高浓度下总变化将最终降低,这可能与海冰覆盖的减少有关。我们的研究结果与以下观点相矛盾,即全球变暖将自动成为整体气候变化的一部分。

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