PLOS ONE2013-10-30 6:22 AM

Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century 21世纪预计的海洋生物地理化学变化对生物和人类的影响

Abstract Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. 论文摘要 持续排放的温室气体可以改变气候形成并导致海洋温度,PH值,氧气浓度和生产力的转变,从而可能改变生物和社会系统。 在这个研究中我们提供了关于将来海洋生物地理化学变量的协同变化对海洋生物和更广泛的对人类影响的一个简要的世界性的评估。我们分析了到2100年由温室气体浓度变化作用形成的现代地球系统模型。 模型显示全世界的海洋表面将受到不同强度的海洋变暖,酸化,缺氧和生产力不足的影响。 相反,只有一小部分的世界海洋表面,特别是在极地地区,还会体验到氧气和生产力的上升, 但是几乎没有任何一块海洋表面还会体验到海洋变冷和ph值升高。 我们编辑整理了32个海洋生物栖息地和生物多样性热点地区的全球分布,我们发现这些地区均同事面临多重生物地理化学变量的转变。 这种超级叠加更加凸显了协同生态系统反应的高风险,合理的适应方案需要考虑将来的气候变化以及潜在的全球生物多样性模型的重组。 如果生物地理化学变化同时出现,那么它不仅将影响海洋产品和服务的交付能力,也将对人类的福祉产生重大的影响。 全世界大约有470-870百万的穷人严重依靠海洋来获得食物,工作和收入。 那些生活在乡村的穷人将因为海洋生物地理化学的变化受到最为严重的影响。 这些结果突显了按当下的人工温室气体排放形势发展可以预见到的海洋生态系统衰退和人类波及受困的高风险

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