唧唧堂编辑二朵2014-01-09 5:48 AM

Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature 量化科学文献中对人为造成全球变暖的共识

Abstract We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research. 论文摘要 我们分析了同行评价的科学论文对人为造成全球气候变暖(AGW)的共识的转变。 我们研究了从1991年到2011年11944个标题与“全球气候变化” 或者“全球变暖”相关的论文摘要,我们发现66.4%的摘要对AGW没有表达任何观点,32.6% 的摘要支持AGW, 0.7% 否决 AGW,还有0.3%对全球变暖的原因表示不确定。 在这些对AGW表达出观点的摘要中,97.1% 的摘要支持人类正在造成全球变暖这一共识。 这项研究的第二阶段,我们邀请了作者来评估它们自己的论文(自我评估),和摘要评估相比,自我评估对AGW不表达任何观点的比例更小,只有35.5%。 在那些表达对AGW表达了观点的自我评估中, 97.2%的自我评估支持AGW共识。 在那些对AGW表达了观点的论文中,对AGW共识持支持观点的摘要评估和作者自我评估都随着事件推移而上升。 我们的分析说明了在所有公开发表的研究中,反对AGW共识的文章占了少到几乎没有的比例。

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