PNAS2013-12-26 10:48 PM

Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River policy 空气污染对预期寿命的长期影响:基于中国淮河取暖分界线的证据

Abstract
This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China’s Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 μg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m3 of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6). 中文摘要 本项研究表明,中国任意一项极大加剧空气总悬浮微粒(TSPs)污染的政策的施行正在造成中国北方5亿居民总体寿命缩短25亿多年。这一准实验实证方法是基于中国划淮河为界,规定只为淮河北岸城市居民通过锅炉燃烧煤炭提供免费冬季供暖的政策。我们运用了以距离淮河远近为基准的非连续性回归设计后,发现在北方城市总悬浮微粒(TSPs)的坏境浓度约为184微克/立方米(95%置信区间为[61,307])或在北方城市更高上55%。除此之外,研究结果也显示由于持续增加的心肺死亡发生率,北方地区居民的预期寿命约缩短了5.5年(95%置信区间为[0.8,10.2])。更普遍来看,研究所做分析表明长期暴露于额外增加的100微克/立方米总悬浮微粒(TSPs)浓度中将会导致样本出生时平均预期寿命降低约3年(95%置信区间为[0.4,5.6])。

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