Frontiers in psychology2014-01-22 2:00 AM

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices 音乐唤起的偶发幸福感能调节博彩选择中的概率权重

Abstract
We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the “happy” than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the “happy” condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting. 论文摘要 我们经常在不确定后果时做出决定。我们所做选择的后果通常不可完美预测但又有其概率特性,而概率则可以是已知或未知的。概率判断,即对未知概率的评估,可以被诱发的情绪状态所影响。这表明在风险决策时已知概率的加权可能会受偶发情绪影响,如在解决问题时与判断和决策无关的情绪。概率加权描述了概率转变为结果的主观决策权重并且是确定风险态度的累积前景理论(CPT)中的关键组成部分。我们假设音乐诱发的情绪会调节在增益域尤其是概率加权中的风险态度。我们的实验描绘了由单独阶段的四个条件所组成的试内设计。 41名参加者在每种条件下听了不同类型的音乐-快乐,悲伤,或没有音乐,或一段随机的音律-并进行重复博彩配对的任务。我们发现,与“悲伤”和“随机音律”条件相比,参与者在“快乐”条件下选择高风险彩票的次数骤增。 通过分析基于CPT的结构回归模型,我们发现,观测到的参与者选择的变化可以归因于概率加权函数中高程参数的改变:与在“悲伤”和“随机音律”条件相比,受测者在“幸福”条件下表现出骤增的与高回报相关的决策权重。此外,高程因素与自陈的由音乐唤起的幸福感呈现正相关。因此,我们的实验结果为对风险态度上的偶发幸福感之因果联系提供证据支持,该联系可释为是由概率加权变化所造成的。

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