PLOS ONE2014-02-24 5:14 PM

为什么对统计意义上更重大成果的无保留发布比选择性发布更有效率? Why Publishing Everything Is More Effective than Selective Publishing of Statistically Significant Results

论文摘要 

背景 
De Winter和Happee验证了基于选择性发布重大成果的科学是否可能在对人口效应的准确估计中奏效,以及它是否比无保留发布成果的科学更有效(即无发表偏倚的科学)。根据模拟研究他们认为“无保留发布比选择性发表能得到更准确的真实效应的荟萃分析估计,毫无保留的发布不可复制之成果对科学圈有益。” 

研究方法和结果 
将他们的方案运用到小到中等人口效应规模中,我们表明对科学圈来说无保留发布比选择性发布更显成效。此外,我们检验了空影响的情况,它证实了无保留发布比选择性发布更具戏剧化优越性。 

结论 
无保留发布比只报告显著成果更有效。

Abstract 

Background 

De Winter and Happee [1] examined whether science based on selective publishing of significant results may be effective in accurate estimation of population effects, and whether this is even more effective than a science in which all results are published (i.e., a science without publication bias). Based on their simulation study they concluded that “selective publishing yields a more accurate meta-analytic estimation of the true effect than publishing everything, (and that) publishing nonreplicable results while placing null results in the file drawer can be beneficial for the scientific collective” (p.4). 

Methods and Findings 

Using their scenario with a small to medium population effect size, we show that publishing everything is more effective for the scientific collective than selective publishing of significant results. Additionally, we examined a scenario with a null effect, which provides a more dramatic illustration of the superiority of publishing everything over selective publishing. 

Conclusion 

Publishing everything is more effective than only reporting significant outcomes.

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