PNAS2014-02-24 5:21 PM

城市适应化可以抵御大城市区域出现的升温现象  Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megalopolitan regions 

论文摘要 
对2100年美国几个不同城市在未来扩张建模的结果表明,在缺失任何适应性城市设计的情况下,先撇开温室气体导致的压迫另议,我们预期大都市带的扩展不仅使个别城市范围内而且使国内大部分区域的近地面温度提升1-2 °C。该变暖现象是21世纪受全球气候模式模拟的温室气体引起的气候变化显著现象之一。通过运用一系列区域气候的模拟,我们评估了通常建议的如绿色凉爽的屋顶以及混合方法等来改善气候变暖的城市适应性策略的有效性。我们的研究结果量化了城市规划和设计中的明智选择如何既能抵消城市扩张本身带来的气候影响,实际上甚至又能抵消未来大范围温室气候变暖的大部分影响。我们的研究结果还揭示某些地区不同适应办法间的权衡,这表示因地制宜策略比一刀切的解决方案更显需要。

Abstract 
Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1–2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions. 

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