China Economic Review2014-05-12 3:07 PM

城市经济开放度对房地产价格的影响研究:基于中国35个大中城市面板数据模型的分析 Impact of urban economic openness on real estate prices: Evidence from thirty-five cities in China

论文摘要 


巴拉萨—萨缪尔森假说(简称“巴萨假说”)认为在经济快速增长阶段,可贸易部门较快的劳动生产率增长提高了非可贸易部门的相对成本,从而提高了非可贸易商品的相对价格。本文基于我国35个大中城市1998年~2006年的相关数据,利用面板数据模型,从开放经济体的视角检验了“巴萨假说”对房地产这类典型非可贸易品的适用性。实证分析表明:城市经济开放度水平每正向变动1%,城市房地产价格上涨约0.066%;住房价格波动不仅受到城市经济维度与房地产市场维度因素的影响,而且也受到开放经济维度因素的影响。本文结论不仅为预测全球经济衰退以来房价走势提供了新的依据,而且对政府干预住房市场的实践也具有启发意义。 


Abstract


Over the past decade, China's major cities have experienced significant real estate price increase which has been fueled by the sustained growth of the economic fundamentals. It is well believed that deeper integration with the world market is one of the major reasons for such high speed macroeconomic growth. In this paper, we examined the linkage between urban economic openness, the ratio of trade volume as a percentage of GDP, and urban real estate prices basing on the quality of life theory as well as Balassa–Samuelson (B–S) effects. Using panel data of 35 large Chinese cities from the year 1998 to 2006, we empirically find that for every 1% increase in urban economic openness, urban real estate prices will increase significantly by 0.282%, after controlling for other traditional demand–supply factors. Urban economic openness alone accounted for about 15.90% appreciations of Chinese real estate prices during the sample period, which is not neglectable. This result implies that urban real estate price fluctuations are potentially affected by international economic factors. The economic distance to the international market could be deemed as productive and consumption amenity for a city as well. This study enriches the perception of quality of life factors, and furthermore provides a new perspective for understanding the real estate price dynamics in the globalized economic development today.

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论文摘要 巴拉萨—萨缪尔森假说(简称“巴萨假说”)认为在经济快速增长阶段,可贸易部门较快的劳动生产率增长提高了非可贸易部门的相对成本,从而提高了非可贸易商品的相对价格。本文基于我国35个大中城市1998年~2006年的相关数据,利用面板数据模型,从开放经济体的视角检验了“巴萨假说”对房地产这类典型非可

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