唧唧堂编辑二朵2014-05-14 2:44 PM

[Regional Science and Urban Economics]中国主要房地产市场的评估条件 Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets

论文摘要 

中国房地产市场昂贵和持续上涨的价格吸引了全球关注。在北京和全国其他七大市场的房价租金比率自2007年年初增加了30%至70%。目前的房价租金比率意味着不超过房价2%-3%的极低的用户成本。极高的预期资本收益似乎能证明持有的极低用户成本。我们的计算表明,即使升值预期略有下降会导致超过40%市场的价格大幅下跌比如北京,缺席补偿了租金上涨或其他反补贴因素。 房价收入比率在北京和其他所选市场也都处于历史最高水平,但城镇居民收入增长已经超过了外海主要市场的价格升值。大部分价格上涨发生在土地价值。通过使用北京本地土地拍卖市场的数据,我们能够得到该城市一个稳定价值的土地价格指数。稳定质量的地价自2003年第一季度已增加了近800%,其中一半的增长发生在过去两年。由中央政府控制的国有企业在这一增长中扮演着重要作用,我们的分析显示,对同样地块,他们比其他竞标者多支付了27%。

Abstract 

High and rising prices in Chinese housing markets have attracted global attention. Price-to-rent ratios in Beijing and seven other large markets across the country have increased by 30% to 70% since the beginning of 2007. Current price-to-rent ratios imply very low user costs of no more than 2%–3% of house value. Very high expected capital gains appear necessary to justify such low user costs of owning. Our calculations suggest that even modest declines in expected appreciation would lead to large price declines of over 40% in markets such as Beijing, absent offsetting rent increases or other countervailing factors. Price-to-income ratios also are at their highest levels ever in Beijing and select other markets, but urban income growth has outpaced price appreciation in major markets off the coast. Much of the increase in prices is occurring in land values. Using data from the local land auction market in Beijing, we are able to produce a constant quality land price index for that city. Real, constant quality land values have increased by nearly 800% since the first quarter of 2003, with half that rise occurring over the past two years. State-owned enterprises controlled by the central government have played an important role in this increase, as our analysis shows they paid 27% more than other bidders for an otherwise equivalent land parcel.

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唧唧堂编辑二朵

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