唧唧堂编辑二朵2014-05-14 3:40 PM

价格异常和宏观调控政策的有效性:来自中国房地产市场的证据 Price anomalies and effectiveness of macro control policies: Evidence from Chinese housing markets 

论文摘要 

自1998年住房市场化改革以来,中国经历了快速增长。住房价格连续激增一直备受公众批评。鉴于价格偏离了其内在价值,中央政府实施了一系列政策来干预住房市场,但效果不佳。极少有说服力的学术研究来探讨中国城市住房市场的价格异常和宏观调控措施的影响。本研究采用了计量方法来调查住房价格与市场基础之间的相互作用,目标于辨别1998-2012年间北京和上海住房市场价格异常是否存在。此外,我们基于先进计量经济模型进行了不对称性分析来调查宏观调控措施对价格和交易量的影响。我们的研究结果表明,市场效率低下由北京和上海住房供应和需求之间缺乏互动所表现。这两个城市中价格对收入脉冲反应的相反方向主要归因于不同的市场结构。虽然价格异常是偶尔的,但大部分时间北京和上海的房价上涨被视作是合理的。此外,对中国房地产市场宏观调控政策作用的分析揭示了目前阶段政府干预规范市场的效率较低。 

Abstract 

Since the housing market reform in 1998, China has experienced a rapid growth. Continuous surges in housing prices have been criticized by the public. In light of deviation of the price from its intrinsic value, the central government implements a series of policies to intervene the housing market, but makes little difference. Little vigorous academic work on the price anomaly and impact of macro-control measures has been conducted for housing markets in urban China. This research employs econometric methodologies to investigate the interactions between housing price and market fundamentals, in order to identify the existence of price anomaly in the housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai during 1998–2012. In addition, we conduct asymmetry analysis based on an advanced econometric model to investigate the impact of macro-control measures on price and volume. Our findings suggest that the market inefficiency is indicated by lack of interaction between housing supply and demand in Beijing and Shanghai. The opposite directions of impulse responses of price to income in the two cities are mainly attributed to the different market structures. While price anomalies are found occasionally, the housing prices are considered reasonable in Beijing and Shanghai for most of the time. Furthermore, the analysis on the role of macro-control policies in Chinese housing markets reveals that government interventions regulate the market ineffectively at the current stage. 

论文要点

本研究目标于调查1998-2012期间中国房地产市场价格异常和宏观调控政策的作用。 
研究结果表明,北京和上海的住房市场是低效率的。 
两个城市不同的市场结构 针对价格收入呈现完全相反的价格脉冲反应。 
大部分时间北京和上海的房子价格被视作合理。 
目前阶段政府干预规范市场的效率很低。

Highlights 

This research aims to investigate the price anomaly and the role of macro-control policies in China's housing markets during 1998–2012. 
Findings suggest that housing markets in Beijing and Shanghai are less efficient. 
Different market structures render complete opposite impulse responses of price to income in two cities. 
In Beijing and Shanghai, the house prices are considered reasonable for most of the time.
Government interventions regulate the market ineffectively at current stage. 

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唧唧堂编辑二朵

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