唧唧堂编辑二朵2014-05-14 6:57 PM

中国的货币,住房与通货膨胀 Money, housing, and inflation in China

论文摘要

本文探讨了自1998年以来中国的货币,住房和消费物价通胀之间的关系。我们使用标准多变量动态模型并表明,在中国当商品价格呈现粘性,货币增长通过房屋价格变化被最初转嫁至实体经济; 而房价变化则随后被转嫁到消费物价通胀。结果表明近期房地产市场的繁荣主要是受过多的货币增长所驱使,这 在中国通货膨胀行为中主宰了基本模式。相关的政策影响也进行了讨论。

Abstract 

This paper examines the relationship among money, housing, and consumer price inflation in China since 1998. We use a standard multivariate dynamic model and show that when goods prices are sticky, monetary growth is initially transmitted to the real economy via changes in house prices; the changes in house prices are then transmitted to consumer price inflation in China. The results indicate that the recent real estate market boom, mainly driven by excessive monetary growth, dominates the underlying pattern of inflation behavior in China. Relevant policy implications are also discussed. 

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