唧唧堂编辑二朵2014-05-16 3:26 PM

“热钱”会驱使中国的房地产和股市吗? Does “hot money” drive China's real estate and stock markets? 

论文摘要

本文探讨了“热钱”或投机资金流入对中国房地产市场和股市波动的影响程度。结果表明由于其巨大规模和投资的短期特征,热钱推高了房价且加巨了这两个市场的波动。特别是,我们发现热钱是导致中国房地产价格波动的第二大因素。在对应于更多资金流入和热钱震荡走高的“冒险”制度中,这种影响更加突出。

Abstract 

The paper investigates the extent of the impact from “hot money” or speculative capital inflow on the fluctuations of China's real estate market and stock market. The results indicate that hot money has driven up property prices as well as contributed to the accelerating volatilities in both markets due to its enormous size and its short-term characteristic of investing. In particular, we find that hot money ranks as the second largest contributor in the fluctuations of China's real estate prices. In the “risky” regime, which corresponds to more inflows and higher volatility of hot money, the effects are even more prominent.

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