唧唧堂编辑二朵2014-05-16 3:55 PM

货币政策对中国房地产价格增长的影响 The effect of monetary policy on real estate price growth in China

论文摘要 

使用1998年第一季度至2009年第4季度期间的季度数据和从2005年7月至2010年2月的月度数据,本文探讨了包括长期基准银行贷款利率,货币供应量增长和按揭信贷政策指标在内的关键货币政策变量对中国房地产价格增长动力的影响。 实证结果一致表明,扩张性货币政策趋于加剧随后的房屋价格增长,而紧缩的货币政策趋于减弱随后的房屋价格增长。这些结果表明中国货币政策行动是中国房地产价格增长变化背后的关键驱动力。我们还表明在控制货币供应量增长后,热钱流入对住房价格增长变化不具有显著冲击。最后,看涨股市趋于加快随后的房屋价格增长。

Abstract 

Using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2009:Q4 and monthly data from July 2005 to February 2010, this paper examines the impact of key monetary policy variables, including long-term benchmark bank loan rate, money supply growth, and mortgage credit policy indicator, on the real estate price growth dynamics in China. Empirical results consistently demonstrate that expansionary monetary policy tends to accelerate the subsequent home price growth, while restrictive monetary policy tends to decelerate the subsequent home price growth. These results suggest that Chinese monetary policy actions are the key driving forces behind the change of real estate price growth in China. We also show that hot money flow does not have a significant impact on the change of home price growth after controlling for the money supply growth. Finally, a bullish stock market tends to accelerate subsequent home price growth. 

论文要点

我们研究了关键货币政策变量对中国房地产价格增长动力的影响。 
扩张性货币政策趋于加快随后的房屋价格增长。 
紧缩性货币政策趋于减缓随后的住房价格增长。 
在控制货币供应量增长后,热钱流入对住房价格的增长变化没有显著影响。 
看涨股市趋于加快随后的房屋价格增长。

Highlights 

We examine the impact of key monetary policy variables on the real estate price growth dynamics in China. 
Expansionary monetary policy tends to accelerate subsequent home price growth. 
Restrictive monetary policy tends to decelerate subsequent home price growth. 
Hot money flow does not have significant impact on the change of home price growth after controlling for the money supply growth. 
A bullish stock market tends to accelerate subsequent home price growth. 

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唧唧堂编辑二朵

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