Nature2014-06-18 12:57 PM

热带气旋峰值强度向极地方向移动 The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

论文摘要 

试图监测热带气旋活动的努力此前一直因包括风暴频率、风暴持续时间和风暴强度等数值在内的全球数据集不一致而受阻。Jim Kossin及同事绕过这一长期未能解决的问题的办法是,关注热带气旋在其寿命期间达到最大强度时的纬度,这个数据要稳定、可靠得多。他们发现,在过去30年间,峰值强度的位置以每十年大约60公里的速度向极地方向稳定移动。这种移动似乎与风的垂直切变和强度的变化相关,而作者认为这些变化可能与热带的宽度最近因全球变暖的增加有关。

Abstract 

Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.

KEYWORDS

SHARE & LIKE

COMMENTS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Nature

Nature Magazine

0 Following 27 Fans 0 Projects 626 Articles

SIMILAR ARTICLES

Meristems encompass stem/progenitor cells that sustain postembryonic growth of all plant organs. How meristems are activated and sustained by nutrient

Read More

Transcription of ribosomal RNA by RNA polymerase (Pol) I initiates ribosome biogenesis and regulates eukaryotic cell growth. The crystal structure of P

Read More

Abstract The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainti

Read More

Abstract Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond his

Read More

Abstract Evidence from Greenland ice cores shows that year-to-year temperature variability was probably higher in some past cold periods, but there is

Read More

Abstract The land and ocean act as a sink for fossil-fuel emissions, thereby slowing the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1. Although t

Read More

论文摘要 人们已经非常清楚生物多样性对初级生产力等生态系统功能有一个积极影响,但它对植物凋落物的多样性和分解植物凋落物的生物的多样性的影响却不是很清楚。Stephan H?ttenschwiler及同事对从亚北极到热带、包括水生生态系统和陆地生态系统在内的五个地点所进行的并行操纵实验中的凋落物多样性进

Read More

论文摘要 FANTOM5 (即“哺乳动物基因组-5的功能注解”) 是一个大型国际合作项目的第5大阶段,其目标是分析定义每个人类细胞类型的转录调控网络。本期Nature上的两篇Articles论文发表了该项目的一些最新结果。第一篇论文利用FANTOM5项目组的组织和原代细胞样本来定义整个人体中活性的、在

Read More

论文摘要 有证据表明,血管 (尤其是它们的内皮细胞) 控制器官的生长、平衡和再生。在本期Nature上发表的两篇论文中,Ralf Adams及同事证明,骨头血管含有专门支持骨成熟和再生的内皮细胞。Anjali Kusumbe等人在小鼠骨骼系统内识别出一个在介导骨生长中起关键作用的毛细血管亚型。这些血管

Read More

论文摘要 CD4 T细胞(携带能够识别被病毒感染的细胞表面上的CD4抗原的受体的辅助T细胞)的丧失是艾滋病发病的根源。在这项研究中,Warner Greene等人识别出静止的淋巴CD4 T细胞在HIV感染过程中被耗尽的机制。利用保持了天然淋巴环境的人淋巴组织的体外培养,本文作者发现,失败的病毒复制触发

Read More