Nature2014-06-24 5:21 PM

流感病毒未来演变的预测方法 A predictive fitness model for influenza


Marta Łuksza 和Michael Lässig提出预测流感病毒未来演变的一个计算方法。他们根据来自以前全部毒株的种群-遗传数据建立了关于流感血凝素蛋白的一个适应性模型,该模型使其能够预测当前进化枝的未来演变。这一计算模型有望改进对疫苗株的选择。


The seasonal human influenza A/H3N2 virus undergoes rapid evolution, which produces significant year-to-year sequence turnover in the population of circulating strains. Adaptive mutations respond to human immune challenge and occur primarily in antigenic epitopes, the antibody-binding domains of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin. Here we develop a fitness model for haemagglutinin that predicts the evolution of the viral population from one year to the next. Two factors are shown to determine the fitness of a strain: adaptive epitope changes and deleterious mutations outside the epitopes. We infer both fitness components for the strains circulating in a given year, using population-genetic data of all previous strains. From fitness and frequency of each strain, we predict the frequency of its descendent strains in the following year. This fitness model maps the adaptive history of influenza A and suggests a principled method for vaccine selection. Our results call for a more comprehensive epidemiology of influenza and other fast-evolving pathogens that integrates antigenic phenotypes with other viral functions coupled by genetic linkage.






Nature Magazine

0 Following 27 Fans 0 Projects 626 Articles


Meristems encompass stem/progenitor cells that sustain postembryonic growth of all plant organs. How meristems are activated and sustained by nutrient

Read More

Transcription of ribosomal RNA by RNA polymerase (Pol) I initiates ribosome biogenesis and regulates eukaryotic cell growth. The crystal structure of P

Read More

Abstract The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainti

Read More

Abstract Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond his

Read More

Abstract Evidence from Greenland ice cores shows that year-to-year temperature variability was probably higher in some past cold periods, but there is

Read More

Abstract The land and ocean act as a sink for fossil-fuel emissions, thereby slowing the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1. Although t

Read More

论文摘要 人们已经非常清楚生物多样性对初级生产力等生态系统功能有一个积极影响,但它对植物凋落物的多样性和分解植物凋落物的生物的多样性的影响却不是很清楚。Stephan H?ttenschwiler及同事对从亚北极到热带、包括水生生态系统和陆地生态系统在内的五个地点所进行的并行操纵实验中的凋落物多样性进

Read More

论文摘要 FANTOM5 (即“哺乳动物基因组-5的功能注解”) 是一个大型国际合作项目的第5大阶段,其目标是分析定义每个人类细胞类型的转录调控网络。本期Nature上的两篇Articles论文发表了该项目的一些最新结果。第一篇论文利用FANTOM5项目组的组织和原代细胞样本来定义整个人体中活性的、在

Read More

论文摘要 有证据表明,血管 (尤其是它们的内皮细胞) 控制器官的生长、平衡和再生。在本期Nature上发表的两篇论文中,Ralf Adams及同事证明,骨头血管含有专门支持骨成熟和再生的内皮细胞。Anjali Kusumbe等人在小鼠骨骼系统内识别出一个在介导骨生长中起关键作用的毛细血管亚型。这些血管

Read More

论文摘要 CD4 T细胞(携带能够识别被病毒感染的细胞表面上的CD4抗原的受体的辅助T细胞)的丧失是艾滋病发病的根源。在这项研究中,Warner Greene等人识别出静止的淋巴CD4 T细胞在HIV感染过程中被耗尽的机制。利用保持了天然淋巴环境的人淋巴组织的体外培养,本文作者发现,失败的病毒复制触发

Read More